In terms of pure electoral arithmetics the results to the five assembly elections – in Uttar Pradesh , Uttarakhand , Punjab , Manipur and Goa – underscores the continuing march of Hindutva politics as represented by the Bharatiya Janata Party ( BJP). The BJP is set to form the government in four out of these five States , with clear majority in Uttar Pradesh , Uttarakhand and Manipur while it has to draw support from independents and smaller parties in Goa . But at the same time , the results have also underscored the steady resistance being put up by regional forces in the form of the stupendous victory of the Aam Aadmi Party ( AAP) in Punjab and the spirited fight of the Samajwadi Party (SP) in Uttar Pradesh . The election process has also heralded virtual demise of the grand old party of India Congress, suffering heavy loses across all the five States . Once prominent regional parties like the Akali Dal and the Bahujan Samaj Party have also met the same fate .
Historically , Punjab been the gateway to the ‘karvan (procession)’ of the diverse streams of culture, civilization, ideas, stories and politics for centuries that has made what is known as Hindustan or India or Bharat today. The same Punjab is seeing today the rise of Arvind Kejrival with his novel experiments in politics . By all indications , it appears to have the potential to travel down to other northern and western Indian states such as Himachal Pradesh and Gujarat. A dominant factor that spurred its rise in Punjab was the aspirational young generation getting disenchanted with the traditional parties and looking for a solution driven one approach to politics. Winning a phenomenal 92 seats out the 117 seats in Punjab Kejriwal’s Aam Admi Party (AAP) has emerged as the first regional party in post Independent India to take over a second state in a matter of 10 years since its inception.
While there is merit in the opinion of some political pundits highlighting the BJP’s show in Uttar Pradesh as a ‘booster dose” for the saffron party , a closer look at the voting trends also points to the bigger gains made by the Akhilesh Yadav led SP in terms of voting percentage points , though the SP led alliance could win only 125 seats against the BJP led National Democratic Alliance’s ( NDA ) 273. The BJP and its allies had 325 seats in 2017. On the other hand, the Samajvadi Party had barely 43 seats and thus, it is has registered a threefold rise in its legislative strength.
Back to the comparison between the BJP and the AAP, the AAP’s political philosophy is entirely based on the delivery of the services, schemes and solutions to the people with perfection and speed whereas the BJP has combined welfare schemes with Hindutva and nationalism to increase its sway.
The AAP’s policy—which has the stamp of Arvind Kejriwal—has penetrated deeper in the psyche of the voters first in Delhi and now in Punjab. On the other hand, the BJP has the reasons for worries in future with the aspirational voters agitating for employment and livelihood showing faith in Akhilesh and turning to his party. Even if not to his satisfaction, the farmers’ stir has enervated Hindutva to some extent uniting the Hindus and Muslims that has added to the rise in the seats and vote share for the Samajwadi Party all across Uttar Pradesh. In all regions of Uttar Pradesh – western , Awadh , Bundhelkhand and Poorvanchal – the SP vote share Chas risen to the tune of 15 to 17 percent . Indeed the NDA too has registered a three and a half percent rise in vote share as compared to 2017 polls . It has got 45 percent vote this time . In comparison the SP has risen from 21.8 percent five years ago to 36.1 percent now.
Of course, the BJP’s welfare scheme that has ensured free ration and Rs 6000 cash in three installments financed by Rs 54000 crore of allocation in the union budget and the beneficiaries confirming it to the touring journalists has weighed over the S.P’s efforts, facilitating Adityanath to hold on with power.
But viewed from a futuristic perspective, the BJP has reasons for worry in 2024 in Uttar Pradesh. It goes without saying that Narendra Modi has lorded over the psyche of the youths since 2014 onwards. Frustrated and angry for not getting jobs, they have shifted to the SP and now Akhilesh is faced with the challenge to retain and expand on his gains in the long haul of the political battle that he is likely to be involved with the BJP.
The elections have certainly catapulted Kejriwal at the national level pointing to the possibility of his emergence as one of the challengers to Prime Minister Narendra Modi . At the same time , there is also hope for Akhilesh to build on the relative gains he has made in the country’s most populous State , Uttar Pradesh . In all probability , the fulcrum of opposition politics in the run up to the 2024 polls would revolve around Kejriwal , Akhilesh and the Trinamool Congress Chief and West Bengal Chief Minister Mamta Banerjee , who routed the BJP in the West Bengal elections earlier . But the current results as well as the once over the last couple of years has underscored the free fall of the Congress and it has denervated the party nearly beyond repair.
It’s a saga of the Congress steadily losing on its organizational and mass base owing to the inaptitude on the part of its leadership versus a better organized and hugely resourceful BJP in Uttarakhand, Goa andn Manipur. The BJP despite changing three CM has retained Uttarakhand which the Congress because of the weaknesses a multiple layers of its structure has failed to capitalize on the apparently anti-incumbency dogging the BJP in the hill state.
