“Don’t these people know anything about the ‘Overton Window’?
In the contemporary Indian context, any political project must follow the ideas and possibilities that are now emerging from Ayodhya. That is the law of the ‘Overton Window.” This was told to me in January 2024 by a writer and economist who had for long played a prominent role in Delhi based think tanks related to the Sangh Parivar.
‘Overton Window’ is a term that entered political lexicon about a decade and a half ago. It originated from a novel of the same name published in 2010. ‘Overton Window’ is a political window that represents political policies and ideas that gain prominence or acceptance among the people at a particular point in time.
The core of this concept is that at that particular juncture, all forces and parties involved in politics will be forced to abide by the rules of the ‘Overton Window’. Those who try to advance ideas outside this window will be alienated from the mainstream and marginalized.
The think tank member made this statement in the run-up to the inauguration of the Ram Janmabhoomi Mandir in Ayodhya. He highlighted the statements of praise made by celebrities who have made their presence felt at various levels – singer Chitra, Carnatic musician Ravi Kiran, actor Rajinikanth, actress Revathi and others – for the Ayodhya Ram Mandir project and Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who had literally helmed the Mandir construction.
He went on to add as follows. “The major developments in the Executive, Legislature and Judiciary in the five years since Modi’s second term began in 2019 underscore the dominance of the ‘Overton Window’ factor related to Ayodhya. The approach taken by the judiciary in several cases related to Ayodhya is the biggest example of this.”
The so-called “ignoramuses” he referred to in the opening sentence belonged to the Congress led by Rahul Gandhi, the Samajwadi Party (SP) led by Akhilesh Yadav and the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) led by Tejashwi Yadav, and the Left parties as a whole. His primary argument was that these parties and their leaders who were trying to advance politics excluding the Ayodhya Ram Mandir project would be completely rejected by the people of India in the Lok Sabha polls.
This rhetorical projection was four months before the 2024 elections. In the weeks that followed, as the elections drew closer, other Sangh Parivar leaders and spokespersons could be heard repeating that Ayodhya was the only “mainstream issue” in the 2024 national context. But when the election results were finally declared these big projections were found to be thoroughly misplaced. The results marked significant setbacks to Hindutva politics in several regions of India, including the big States of Maharashtra and Uttar Pradesh, and even in constituencies prestigious for the Sangh Parivar such as the Ayodhya Lok Sabha seat.
The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), which had been campaigning on the slogan “Ab ki baar charso par” (more than four hundred seats this time), failed to secure a majority in the Lok Sabha on its own, far below its projections of a landslide victory that would eclipse the big wins the party had got in the 2014 and 2019 elections. The hitherto “indomitable” Narendra Modi found himself in a situation similar to former BJP Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee, who was forced to govern in the 1990s and early 2000s with the support of several regional associate parties. In 2024, Modi’s dependency was on Janata Dal United (JDU) and the Telugu Desam Party.
The “think tank scholars” like my acquaintance had also mouthed many predictions about the campaign of the opposition parties. One of their key points was that the opposition campaign highlighting the BJP’s “Charso Par” slogan as something that clearly poses a challenge to the concrete parameters of the Indian Constitution would come a cropper. They also contended that the focus of the opposition on caste reservation would also fail on the ground. These predictions of the “think tank scholars” also came a cropper.
Significantly, the support received by the BJP among Dalits and the Other Backward Caste (OBC) groups in the large States of Uttar Pradesh and Maharashtra came down noticeably signalling the popular acceptance of the slogans and campaign of the Opposition parties. Along with the issues related to protection of the Constitution and reservation, the severe economic crisis faced by the people across the country and its visible manifestations, including price rise and agricultural distress, strengthened the anti-government sentiment during the 2024 Lok Sabha polls.
Beyond the fluctuations in the strength of the BJP in the Lok Sabha, the setbacks suffered by Narendra Modi and his party have historical dimensions. These dimensions are related to the historical perspectives and expectations of the Hindutva alliance led by the Rashtriya Swayamsevak Sangh (RSS) for the period 2023-25, and the discussions and projections that have been held internally within the Sangh Parivar for a long time about this period.
The RSS, an entity formed for the organisational advancement of the sectarian ideology of “Hindutva”, conceived by Vinayak Damodar Savarkar in 1923 and published as a treatise in 1924, will complete its centenary in 2025. Dominant sections of the RSS and its associates in the Sangh Parivar had believed that an important phase of the establishment of a total Hindu Rashtra would be completed in 2023-25 period. This belief was buttressed, when the BJP won resounding victories in the 2014 and 2019 elections, which provided the BJP majorities on its own in the Lok Sabhas that were formed during this period.
During Modi’s second term, several moves in the Executive, Legislature, and Judiciary also fueled this expectation. These developments included the abrogation of Article 370 of the Constitution that led to the imposition of a jackboot administration in Jammu and Kashmir bringing the region under the comprehensive control of the union government as well as the verdicts in the Babri Masjid cases in Ayodhya.
It was against this backdrop that the BJP prepared for the 2024 elections. It was calculated that if the inauguration of the Ayodhya Ram temple was also held before the elections, and that too with Narendra Modi himself as the chief priest, it would easily impact the elections favourably for the BJP. In turn, this was viewed as a major leap towards the establishment of a Hindu Rashtra as conceived by the Hindutva ideology.
Those calculations failed to rise in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections. This election result created hope among a large section of secular parties and their supporters that the aggressive forms of Hindutva, which were one of the prominent streaks of Modi 1.0 and 2.0 regimes, would not be pursued as intensely under Modi 3.0. This belief was also on account of the fact that Modi 3.0 was dependent on the support of the JD(U) and TDP, two parties that are professedly secular.
But the picture emerging after seven months of Modi 3.0 does not justify these expectations. The sectarian Hindutva campaigns are being advanced in new forms and under new guises. One ploy that has been repeatedly used has its origins in a court observation made by former Chief Justice of the Supreme Court D.Y Chandrachud. Justice Chandrachud had created some of the most shameful chapters in the history of the Indian Judiciary through many of his judgments and pronouncements. The Sangh Parivar is now taking recourse to a series of legal applications seeking to dig up mosques in various parts of North India on the basis of a pronouncement made by Justice Chandrachud.
Justice Chandrachud’s observation literally undermined the 1991 law that stated that the ownership of all places of worship other than the Babri Masjid – Ramjanmabhoomi in Ayodhya should be beyond dispute and should remain the same as it was on August 15, 1947. This sabotage pronouncement by Justice Chandrachud was made while delivering the verdict in the Ayodhya case. The observation was that even though the Status Quo Act of 1991 is in force, no one can deny the right of Hindus in India to scrutinize the history of the places of worship they believe are theirs. On this basis, Hindu extremist organizations have been repeatedly filing investigation petitions against mosques in several courts seeking to dig them up and see whether there are temples underneath.
Along with these, Modi 3.0 is also pushing forward complex and problematic programs like “One Nation, One Election” and the revamping of Waqf board laws. The new Sangh Parivar plans are a continuation of the “Kam Jaari Hai” (a concept and a programme that stipulates that the constituents of the Sangh Parivar continue their work towards their own goals whatever the setbacks they face) plan that the Sangh Parivar has followed since its inception. On the other hand, the ideological stability as well as the sense of purpose and cohesion shown during the Lok Sabha election period by the INDIA Alliance of opposition parties is gradually on the decline as of now.
In short, although the Sangh Parivar could not fulfill the grand predictions based on the ‘Overton Window’, the saffron grouping has once again brought out its Hindutva weapons with the revival of the “Kam Jaari Hai” plan using the Judiciary.
Secular politics also suffered losses in 2024 at the level of leadership personalities. The loss of the CPI(M) leader Sitaram Yechury and former Congress Prime Minister Manmohan Singh, who gave certainty and sharpness to the very idea of the INDIA Alliance, is certainly irreparable.
Looking ahead to 2025, Sitaram Yechury, in a personal meeting with this writer about a month and a half before his death, said, “The INDIA alliance should move forward together for active ideological struggles and grassroots agitations by taking up people’s issues from the ground without depending on mere electoral politics. Only that will lead to a lasting victory in the anti-fascist struggle, going beyond the limited electoral gains of 2024.” Would the democratic forces in India be able to absorb this extremely relevant message in 2025? This is the biggest political question at the national level as the curtain falls on 2024.
Excellent article, the tone and character of which have been elevated exponentially by the reference to and explanation of the Overton Window. Although it did not translate into votes this time, the window somewhat explains how some seemingly decent and highly educated (both can be mutually exclusive, of course) can support the Sangh parivar. From the unthinkable, such acceptance and avtive endorsement has now swung to the popular and have become part of policy. Such serious articles are rare these days with inanities being passed off as analyses. Thank you for this article.
An excellent article and an eye opener too. As rightly said by Shri Sitaram, grassroot level works alone will out beat the systematic way of projecting Hindutva ideology, changing the pattern now and then to enhance the base.
So more of this kind of articles, debate, creating awareness at the grassroot level are imperative.
I have been following Venkitesh Ramakrishnan’s analysis of national politics over the last 35 years , right from his coverage of the Ayodhya agitation of the VHP . It is always steadfast and objective and of course unique in the way it brings out new dimensions and facets of politics . As R Rajagopal mentioned in an earlier comment this is serious analyses at a time when inanities are passed off as political interpretation . Wishing Venkitesh sir more strength and reach .