Karnataka will have a neck to neck fight in Lok Sabha polls, edge to Congress, INDIA: Eedina Survey

A survey by the Eedina group (Eedina.com) that had accurately predicted a comfortable victory for the Congress in the state elections of May 2023 shows a 17:11 lead for INDIA (Congress) over NDA (BJP-JDS) with seven seats, indicating a neck to neck fight. While the Congress vote share has shown an increase in the past year and the BJP vote share and seats both a decline, 45% of those surveyed, however, still want Narendra Modi to have a third term. Karnataka sends 28 Members of Parliament (MPs) to the Lok Sabha.

A survey of over 52,678 people conducted between February 15-March 5, 2024 by the Eedina group (Eedina.com) has good news for the INDIA alliance and serious concerns for the NDA (BJP-JDS) in the state. The survey conducted prior to the announcement of candidates, shows 17 seats to expectedly go to the Congress with the BJP-JDS alliance securing 11. In seven seats there is, the survey says, a neck to neck fight. Karnataka sends 28 Members of Parliament (MPs) to the Lok Sabha. Elections in the state will be held in the second (April 26) and third phases (May 7) of the upcoming election. In the last Lok Sabha elections held in 2019 the BJP had won 25 seats, while the Congress and JD(S) were reduced to one seat each . Actor Sumalatha also won as an Independent Supported by the BJP.

The current survey shows an increase in the Congress vote share in the past year with a decline for the BJP vote share and even seats. Yet, 45% of those surveyed, however, still want Narendra Modi to have a third term.

Interestingly, six weeks before the scheduled polling in the state, the issues most acutely important by voters, according to this survey is the spiraling price rise/inflation (76.55% of respondents feel price of essential goods has increased) and acute unemployment (53.18% of respondents feel price employment opportunities have reduced). This is followed by voter realisation that corruption has increased (45.75% of respondents), the gap between rich and poor has widened (42.02% of respondents) and access to welfare schemes has gone down (37.63% of respondents). This is a scathing indictment of the ordinary voter on a decade of Modi’s rule.

Change in voter trends

BJP which enjoyed gradual rise in their vote share since 1996 shows a decline in their vote share this Lok Sabha election.

2019 Lok Sabha Elections

• BJP 51.38%
• CONG 31.88%
• JDS 9.67%

However, interestingly, political perceptions of the voters surveyed throw up these findings:

Perception people have regarding Modi regime.

• 47.64% feel that position and fame of India has increased at global level.
• 56.14% feel that they would vote in favour of the Congress guarantee schemes.
• For women respondents this increases to 59.28%.
• 39.67% respondents feel State Government Guarantee schemes are more helpful compared to 20.31% feeling central government schemes are more helpful. 26.31% feeling both centre and state schemes help them.
• 35.8% of respondents feel Narendra Modi’s work to be satisfactory and 33.06% feel Modi’s work is excellent.
• 45.19% of respondents also feel Modi should get the third term.

Eedina.com’s survey, the second since the group was launched was conducted with a systematic random sampling method with door to door, face to face surveys. In 2023, it was the only media house which predicted the election outcome 21 days prior to the Karnataka election date of May 10 2023.

This survey was conducted from February 15, to March 5, 2024h prior to the candidate announcement. With the sample size of 52,678 this is so far the largest pre-poll survey conducted in Karnataka for upcoming Lok Sabha election 2024.

Note: This is a Pre poll Survey before the announcements of the candidates. This trend may change keeping Candidature, Issues crop up and Mode of Campaign parties and civil society hold. 

This story was first published in SabrangIndia and can be read here.