Assembly Elections to the three crucial States of Maharashtra, Jharkhand and Haryana are due in November-December 2024 and pollsters have already started making forays into these States to gauge the mood of the electorate. Peoples Pulse, the Hyderabad based election survey team, which has a credible track record in conducting mood surveys, including in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections has done an extensive early Pre-Poll survey in Haryana. Peoples Pulse says that there is a slight edge for the Congress, which reflects the Lok Sabha election trends in the State. The AIDEM presents a summary of the report as also a link to the full report of ‘Peoples Pulse’.
The Congress is continuing the momentum gained in the recent Lok Sabha polls as it braces for the upcoming election to the Haryana Assembly with a 10-year anti-incumbency pushing the BJP on the backfoot.
The term of the current Assembly ends in the first week of November and elections are most likely to be held in October. The State has a total 90 Assembly seats with 46 being the magic mark to form the government.
According to a Mood Survey carried out by Peoples Pulse, the Hyderabad based research organisation. The Congress is expected to bag between 43 and 48 seats, leaving behind BJP. BJP may get 34 to 39 seats while others (JJP, INLD+BSP, AAP and Independents) could bag 3-8 seats.
There are at least 15 battleground (key) seats which could determine the ultimate winner. However, bearing a few constituencies, the contest appeared to be closed in almost every assembly seat. The Battleground seats could turn either way, depending upon the efforts and candidates of both BJP & Congress parties. The number of independent MLAs could also increase as independent candidates are locked in very close contests on a number of battleground seats. Right selection of candidates (to overcome anti-incumbency) and keeping the focus on local issues will play a dominant role in setting the tone.
As per the Mood Survey conducted by Peoples Pulse research organisation, Congress is expected to poll around 44 % votes and the BJP 41%. The vote share for JJP is likely to be a mere 2 % followed by INLD+BSP (3), AAP (1) and Others (9).
As per the Mood Survey there was an under current against the 10 years BJP government and reflecting the mood for change in Haryana.
The Mood Survey was conducted for a month from June 25 to July 24 with six teams of researchers covering all the six regions of the State, i.e. Hisar, Karnal, Gurugram, Faridabad, Rohtak and Ambala.
Peoples Pulse has deployed researchers in all the 90 assembly constituencies in Haryana to conduct a Mood study and access the water dispensation towards the political parties.
The Mood Survey overall field work was coordinated by Mr. Rajan Pandey.
The Mood Survey field work at Zonal level was coordinated by:
- Mr. Abhishek Raj (Hisar), Mr. Suryaprakash Kaswan (Karnal), Mr. Kalyan (Gurugram), Mr. Raghunandan (Faridabad), Mr. Amit Ohlan (Rohtak)
- Mr. Awesh Tiwari and Mr. Babu Singh (Ambala).
The Mood Survey report was compiled and prepared by Mr. Rajan Pandey, Mr. R. Dilip Reddy, Director, Peoples Pulse, and Mr. G. Murali Krishna, Senior Researcher, Peoples Pulse.
Peoples Pulse research organisation will conduct a Pre-Poll Survey after the election notification is issued.
South First, the fastest growing English news portal, was associated with Peoples Pulse in conducting the Mood Survey in Haryana.
The contest this time round is largely going to be bipolar between the BJP and the Congress. This is mainly on account of the complete marginalization of regional parties like JJP and INLD. The JJP, which had secured 14.84 per cent votes in 2019, saw its vote share in the recent LS polls plummet to 0.87 % and is unlikely to improve on it in the Assembly polls.
The Broad Findings of the Mood Survey are as follows.
The traditional voters of the Congress are consolidating behind it. Jats and Dalits are largely in favour of the Congress. A majority of farmers (65%) are also supporting the party. The BJP’s efforts to pitch the election as Jats vs non Jats is not working out just as anointing an OBC chief minister has not yielded results in the LS elections.
The Mood Survey found out that BJP support among Dalits has significantly decreased while that among the OBCs has also decreased, albeit in smaller proportions.
When asked if they would give one more chance for BJP (in power for 10 years), only 40 % votes said “Yes”. A majority of 48% replied in the negative while 12 per cent did not have an opinion.
Former Chief Minister Bhoopinder Singh Hooda has a 10 per cent lead over sitting CM Nayab Singh Saini when it comes to people’s choice for the post of CM.
Local factors are dominating the electoral discourse.Issues occupying people’s mind are – farm distress, unemployment, Agniveer and basic livelihood. The BJP, which was successful in 2014 and 19 in building the right narrative, is falling behind in its response to people’s issues, a reflection of which was seen in the LS polls itself.
In the upcoming assembly elections, most of the voters will vote according to local issues like performance of the MLA, infrastructure problems etc while bigger-national issues might take a back seat. Due to this, the Modi factor is likely to work less this time.
It was the same issues that had an impact even during the LS polls but could potentially affect the BJP more in the Assembly election. The Congress gained a significant 15% vote share in the LS poll compared to 2019 while the BJP dropped almost 12%. For context, the Congress got lead in 42 Assembly seats in the recent LS poll. Its ally, AAP (now contesting separately), secured lead in 4 while the BJP was in the first place in 44 seats.
Across regions, youths talked about increasing unemployment and questioned the role of both state and central governments around this issue. They specifically mentioned the Agniveer scheme, which according to most of youth respondents, has decreased the attraction of service in armed forces among young population.
Both men and women respondents across regions and communities raised the issue of inflation and expressed their anger on it. In rural areas, majority of farmers-barring the Ahirwal region, talked about the negative role played by the Haryana government in curtailing the farmers’ protest.
The issue of family ID in Haryana is indeed serious, especially in rural areas. Due to incorrect surveys, many families are being deprived of government facilities. This is having a negative impact on their economic situation and living standards.
Anti-incumbency against sitting MLAs from all parties-Another major finding was that a significant number of sitting MLAs from all parties are facing acute anti-incumbency which includes some of the ministers of state cabinet. If tickets are repeated for them, they are likely to lose this time.
As per the Mood Survey, the JJP has lost the faith of common voters and Jats are highly unlikely to vote for them. The INLD-BSP alliance is also not likely to make any major change in the political scenario of the state. Besides, the AAP is also not likely to win a single seat. The election is expected to be moving towards a bi-polar contest between the BJP and the Congress. However, independent candidates are likely to win or spoil equations on a number of seats.
According to all parameters the Congress holds a slight edge. As of now it is going to be a close election. Haryana is headed for a exciting election season with several possibilities till the government takes office.
The BJP is holding ground in the Faridabad (barring Nuh district) and Ahirwal region while Congress seems to be picking up in Hisar, Ambala, Rohtak regions.
Read the full report here: Haryana Mood Survey – 2024
