The political undercurrents in Bihar have begun to shift, quietly but unmistakably. In party offices, the confident cadence of past campaigns has given way to cautious whispers and restrained unease. The BJP, dominant for a decade, now enters an election season shadowed by doubts from within its own ranks.
Internal Fault Lines
A party-commissioned internal survey, meant to be a diagnostic tool, has ended up revealing the depth of voter discontent. According to senior functionaries, nearly 90 per cent of sitting BJP MLAs have received negative feedback in their constituencies. This includes complaints of inaccessibility, administrative high-handedness, and the cumulative effect of anti-incumbency.
The findings remain unpublished, but their tremors are evident. District offices now buzz with talk of ticket overhauls, “fresh faces,” and urgent “damage control.” Even insiders concede that local discontent, more than opposition strength, is the immediate threat.
“People are not upset with Prime Minister Narendra Modi . They are upset with us here,” a district convenor said quietly, echoing a sentiment that has surfaced in multiple conversations across the state.
The SIR Controversy
Adding to the BJP’s unease is the Special Intensive Revision (SIR) of electoral rolls In an unprecedented exercise, the Election Commission deleted 68.66 lakh names and added 21.53 lakh new ones. Officials call it overdue housekeeping; politically, it has become a flashpoint.
Districts with significant Muslim populations, have seen the highest deletion rates Gopalganj district saw the maximum deletions (13.9%), followed by Kishanganj district (10.5%), Purnia district (9.7%), Madhubani (8.7%) and Bhagalpur (7.8%). Civil society groups and opposition parties have argued that the burden of proof disproportionately fell on the poor and the marginalized, many of whom were asked to furnish documents multiple times. The Supreme Court’s directive to the EC to publish searchable lists of deletions reflects the magnitude of public anxiety.
For the BJP, this administrative process has produced an unexpected political consequence. Survey teams making verification calls have reported uncharacteristic hostility from their own support base, with long-time voters expressing resentment at having to “prove their citizenship twice.” This sentiment has not faded.
Allegations and Counter-Allegations
Amid this churn, Prashant Kishor (referred to as PK in political conversations) has sought to shape the narrative by attacking the BJP’s leadership in Bihar. In a series of statements, he has accused senior leaders — including Deputy Chief Minister Samrat Choudhary, Dilip Jaiswal and Mangal Pandey of entrenched corruption. He has demanded arrests, inquiries, and resignations.
The BJP’s response has been strikingly subdued. Former Union Minister R.K. Singh – who is so openly critical of the BJP leadership in the state, leading to unconfirmed news reports stating that he has left the party – recently remarked that the “accused must respond or risk damaging the party,”. In Bihar’s political idiom, silence is rarely neutral; it signals discomfort.
In the midst of this , Kishor’s own financial disclosures have complicated his crusade. Declaring that he earned ₹241 crore in consultancy fees over three years, Kishor cited, among other engagements, ₹11 crore from Navyug Construction for a two-hour consultancy. The company has in the past made donations to the BJP. Kishor has argued that the transaction is legitimate and fully accounted for; the BJP has questioned the credibility and substance of such consultancy. Even many ruling political parties in India have not received donations of this magnitude over a comparable period.
This exchange has complicated the moral framing of the campaign. Kishor positions himself as the disruptor exposing the establishment, but the details of his financial dealings have become part of the campaign conversation narrowing the moral distance he seeks to claim.
The Opposition’s Calculated Patience
For the RJD, the electoral landscape appears relatively stable. Its core vote base remains largely intact in its traditional strongholds, and its leaders have adopted a measured strategy, allowing the BJP’s internal issues and administrative controversies to dominate the news cycle.
The Congress, meanwhile, has sharpened its campaign around the theme of “vote chori” (vote theft), linking the SIR controversy to questions of disenfranchisement. A recent survey placed electoral fairness as the second-most important issue in the state. Whether the party can sustain this narrative remains to be seen, but the issue has provided it with rare political traction.
A Strategic Crossroads
At the BJP’s recent three-day strategy session in Patna, discussions extended late into the night. Candidate selection is now intertwined with crisis management. Leaders are weighing whether a large-scale reshuffle of candidates can offset anti-incumbency, or whether it will alienate entrenched factions.
Simultaneously, the leadership is attempting to shift the narrative toward migration, welfare delivery, and security traditional themes that have served it well. But the timing and credibility of this pivot are uncertain.
Bihar has a history of unsettling political certainties. Governments that seemed invincible have stumbled when local anger fused with larger narratives. The BJP’s current position is reminiscent of such moments: strong at the centre, yet facing restlessness on the ground.
The BJP now confronts three converging crises: internal dissent, the SIR backlash, and corruption charges it hasn’t convincingly answered. For Kishor, the challenge is to maintain credibility while under scrutiny himself. For the opposition, it is to convert a favorable atmosphere into sustained mobilisation.
As campaigning accelerates, Bihar’s political story is less about grand alliances and more about which narrative endures in public memory. The ground is shifting slowly, but with intent.
An Emerging Triangular Contest
As campaigning gathers pace, Bihar’s electoral field appears to be moving towards a triangular contest, with the Jan Suraaj-led third front emerging as a potential disruptor. Early political assessments and survey snapshots place Jan Suraaj’s likely vote share between 8% and 12%, concentrated in pockets where Prashant Kishor’s network has been active for over two years.
PK claims during interviews suggest that his party’s current strategy is calibrated to erode the BJP’s support base first, followed by JD(U)’s, and finally the RJD’s, in that order. This tactical sequencing focuses initially on urban and upper-caste BJP strongholds, then on JD(U)’s Extremely Backward Classes segments
However, this is a fluid scenario. Much depends on candidate selection, local alliances, and whether Jan Suraaj can sustain organisational intensity through the campaign period. Party tickets, still to be announced across formations, may trigger defections, local realignments, and tactical seat-level pacts that could reshape the competitive landscape.
Bihar has a habit of defying pollsters and pundits alike. If the elections are conducted transparently and without administrative distortions, the contest is poised to be unusually competitive, not a straightforward bipolar race, but a triangular one where a Jan Suraj may influence outcomes across multiple regions without necessarily winning a significant number of seats.
