The Decline and Fall of the American Empire

Early morning today Indian time, or evening Washington time, a couple of hours before his self-declared deadline for Iran to open the Strait of Hormuz or be completely destroyed, Trump announced that he would hold off on the complete erasure of the Iranian civilisation he had earlier promised at 8 pm EST on Tuesday, April 7, 2026

So, what is happening here? Trump wanted something so he could walk away from the disaster that his attempted invasion of Iran, code-named “Operation Epic Fury,” has become. To recapitulate what has happened in the five weeks of this operation, the US and Israel (who I will be referring to as USrael for convenience) first thought that a decapitation strike on the leaders of Iran would lead to a popular revolution in Iran and create regime change. The decapitation happened, but the Islamic government held. The murder of the Supreme spiritual leader of the country, far from creating a revolution, unified the people behind the Islamic government. The tradition of martyrdom is strong in Shia Islam, and had the US government understood such nuances, they would have realised that killing Khamanei was absolutely the biggest mistake they could have done.

After that failed, the USraelis tried to destroy Iran militarily. But they found that they could not do it, because Iran was giving as good as it got. And it was launching devastating drone and missile strikes, not only on Israel, but on every US military base in West Asia. Every American military base in the region is now utterly destroyed. In addition, the Iranians closed down the Strait of Hormuz to marine traffic, causing profound economic consequences. Gasoline prices in the US started going up – something that no American president can afford, especially in an election year. The USraelis tried going up the escalation ladder, by hitting civilian infrastructure, such as the South Pars gas field, but Iran retaliated proportionally each time, for example by bombing Qatar’s North Dome gas field, which adjoins Iran’s gas field. Qatar admitted to losing 17% of its gas capacity and said it would take five years to repair the damage.

To cut a long story short, the USraelis were losing the war in every sense. They could not stop the Iranian missiles. Their air defences were inadequate and they were running out of interceptors. Iran was causing massive damage to Israel and the GCC countries. Trump was desperate for an off-ramp.

All Trump wanted was to have the Iranians agree to something, anything – even the Iranians’ own 10-point plan, so the US could declare “Mission Accomplished” and go home.

And that’s what happened today.

Note that Iran’s 10 points are dramatically different from Trump’s maximalist 15-point plan.

As has been reported in various media outlets, the Iranian plan, which has been in circulation for some time now, includes

• The lifting of all primary and secondary sanctions on Iran.
• Continued Iranian control over the strait of Hormuz.
• US military withdrawal from the Middle East.
• An end to attacks on Iran and its allies.
• The release of frozen Iranian assets.
• A UN security council resolution making any deal binding.

There was also apparently a reference to the right of Iranians to enrich uranium, in the original Farsi version.

As you can see, Iran has not made concessions on anything. It has not agreed to abandon nuclear enrichment, give up its ballistic missiles, or stop supporting Hezbollah, Hamas, or the Houthis.

On the contrary, it has demanded (and Trump has tacitly accepted by endorsing Iran’s 10-point plan in his Truth Social post) the lifting of all sanctions, the withdrawal of the US from the Middle East, the unfreezing of all frozen assets, and control of the Strait of Hormuz.

This is an unqualified victory for Iran – sanctions relief, unfreezing of assets, control of the Strait of Hormuz – what’s not to like? And being able to continue with the nuclear and ballistic missile programmes.

One might ask if the US is lying as usual, and whether it will resume attacks by lulling Iran into a false sense of security.

The only difficulty for the US is that its logistical problems are severe, and will not go away in two weeks. It is running extremely short of weapons, close to running out of even offensive weapons; it has practically run out of interceptors; all its military bases in West Asia have been gutted, with radars worth several billion dollars knocked out; it does not have a nearby port for refuelling and resupply in the region, because it cannot go through the Strait of Hormuz to its major base in Bahrain, the Fifth Fleet HQ, and so has to go as far as Diego Garcia to resupply; and a large portion of the air-to-air tankers that are needed for refuelling the planes flying the long distance from near Salalah, on the other side of Oman, to Iran for its bombing runs have been destroyed on the ground at Prince Sultan Air Base in Saudi Arabia.

These are serious deficiencies, and cannot be fixed in two weeks. You cannot repair the massive damage to the military bases in two weeks. The US has gone through several years of supply of weapons in this war. Its armoury is empty. Trump has asked US defence companies to ramp up their production. But setting up new assembly lines to produce more missiles is not easy, and will take between one to two years. Additionally, the US requires critical and rare earth minerals to make these missiles. China, the main supplier, has a rule in place that it will not export rare earth minerals or magnets to US defence-related businesses, only to civilian entities like automakers.

Further, Iran is under no illusions. It will remain ready for any resumption of hostilities. It could use a respite as well to reload. Many of its tunnel entrances have been bombed by the USraelis, blocking them. Iran will use this respite to repair them and make them more accessible. It will also repair its missile launch vehicles and build fresh vehicles in factories that are fully underground, and stock up on missiles and drones in preparation for the next round. Its civilian population needs a break as well. There is much to urgently repair including the power grid and the petrochemical infrastructure.

It is possible Israel will not go along with the ceasefire. But, on reflection, I believe the Israelis will stick to it. They have taken a massive beating, and they face the same logistical challenges as the Americans. Despite the US pulling its THAAD and Patriot batteries from Korea to Israel, they are still woefully inadequate. An article in the Israeli newspaper Ha’aretz said that 8 out of every 10 Iranian missiles get through and hit their targets. Israel has sustained tremendous damage to its infrastructure. Iran has smartly stayed away from terror attacks and focused on attacking strategic targets, such as the Israeli refinery complex in Haifa; the giant chemical complexes in Ne’ot Hovav in the Negev desert; the strategic Nevatim Air base in the Negev desert; and strategic defence and Mossad assets in Tel Aviv. In June 2025, the Iranians sent a message that they could hit Israel at will; this time they actually did. Israel is in dire straits, and the war is increasingly unpopular with the people.

So, while both sides will restock, repair, and rearm, the cost differential ensures that Iran will be at a significant advantage: Iran produces 400 Shahed drones a day, each of which costs around $20,000, and about 100-200 ballistic missiles a month, while the US manufactures far more expensive, multi-million-dollar missiles, at a much slower rate:

• GMLRS guided launch missiles rockets: 1,167 a month
• Patriot Interceptors: 42 a month
• AMRAAM air-to-air missiles: 137 a month
• THAAD interceptors: 8 a month

You cannot rectify those deficiencies in 15 days.

In addition, if Iran’s terms are not met, the war doesn’t end. And one key point ensures that the US will not repeat this misadventure: the withdrawal of US forces from the Middle East. Having suffered a strategic defeat, the US will not repeat this if it now heads back home. Trump has said the US will not immediately leave, but I think you will start to see ships being pulled away gradually. And, after this, there will be no appetite for further war in the US. Plus, GCC countries will firmly tell Trump they don’t want a resumption.

To be sure, nobody can be sure this ceasefire will hold. There are too many variables. Israel, in particular, is an ideological state, doesn’t operate purely on logic, and people there (from X reactions) are extremely angry with this deal by Trump. So, there is a very good chance they will sabotage the deal. Likewise, the UAE is a country that has been captured by Israel, and might spark a new wave of violence against Iran, which will lead to retaliation. But regardless, what this shows is that Trump buckled because he was faced with an adversary he could not defeat. And, even if the tit-for-tat strikes continue until the entire region is burned down, some realities have changed.

The security architecture of the Persian Gulf has forever changed. Iran is now the dominant power in West Asia. It has stood its ground and defeated the mightiest superpower on the planet. It controls the Strait of Hormuz. And even if this war ends up with all the energy in West Asia destroyed, Iran will be able to rebuild, but neither Israel nor the GCC countries can survive without desalination plants.

Every GCC country will reconsider its relationship with the US – assuming they survive this war. These military bases were supposed to protect them. They have failed spectacularly. When war came, the US focused on saving Israel, leaving the Arab states to fend for themselves. Their oil and gas infrastructure has been hit hard, their economies have taken a beating. Everyone knows war could break out any time in the Gulf again. This means there will be a risk premium on West Asian oil, and prices will remain elevated permanently because of rising insurance costs.

Oil and gas output will be depressed both because of damage to facilities and because wells have been shut for more than a month. Reviving these could take weeks and perhaps months, because well pressure drops in closed wells. Oil and gas prices will be elevated for at least a year, causing diesel, petrol, LOG, and CNG prices to remain high. And, if the ceasefire does not hold, oil prices could remain forever at $200 a barrel.

All this will greatly hurt the Republican Party’s chances in the November midterms. Trump doesn’t have a victory narrative to sell, and this will be exposed in the coming weeks. Hegseth is already facing impeachment threats in Congress. The Epstein probe will gather momentum.

This is a decisive moment in the global power balance. The mighty American military machine has been humbled, and its model has been shown to be hollow. The world now knows the US cannot sustain a long war. The US has paid the price of not paying enough attention to the Russia-Ukraine war, which demonstrated to the world that tanks, aircraft, and ships are useless against drones and ballistic missiles. The new paradigm of war is centred on cheap weapons like drones, which shift the balance towards the defender. The US’ days of military adventurism are at an end. The American empire has reached its phase of terminal decline. It will start to gradually pull out, first from Europe as Trump, Rubio, and Hegseth have clearly indicated in the past week. NATO is dead. Without the unifying presence of the US, Europe will start fighting among itself. Far right parties will come to power, and the EU will dissolve.

China will be the unquestioned winner of this conflict. It has seen the failure of American weaponry when challenged with good ISR (intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance) capabilities that it has made available to Iran in this conflict. It knows it doesn’t need to fear the US again. Already the leader of Taiwan’s main opposition party, the KMT, the party of Chiang Kai-Shek, has gone to Beijing to talk with Xi. Taiwan knows the Americans cannot protect it as it couldn’t protect the GCC countries. The unification of Taiwan with China will happen within a year, and peacefully.

With the withdrawal of America from Europe, the Ukraine war will also end in a complete and humiliating defeat for Ukraine and Europe, within the next year. With a global energy shortage, Russia is the other clear winner.

We are living in a unique time in history when we are witness to the end of an Empire – such as the end of the Western Roman Empire in 476 CE, or the conquest of Constantinople by the Ottomans and the fall of the Byzantine Roman Empire in 1453 CE, or the end of the British Empire after World War II. We are witnesses to the end of the American Empire.