This article by social and political observer K. Sahadevan was originally published in Malayalam in 2023. This perceptive piece was one of the first indicators of the manipulation of data by the Narendra Modi government and has special significance in the context of the global scrutiny and rebuke this data regime has evoked in recent times.
“There is no poverty data; therefore, there is no poverty.”
This is the headline of an op-ed written by Yamini Aiyar, one of the think-tank scholars at the Centre for Policy Research, published in Deccan Herald on April 30, 2023.
This isn’t just about hunger alone. By repeatedly delaying many essential surveys required to prepare the country’s socio-economic development indicators, the Modi government has pushed India into a dark age of statistics.
We all know that India’s census—once considered a global benchmark—has not been conducted since 2011. The government has never explained why such a massive population enumeration exercise continues to be indefinitely postponed, especially when it has been carried out with great precision since 1881.
Another stalled survey area is consumer expenditure. The Consumer Expenditure Survey (CES) is one of the most crucial data sets needed to calculate poverty levels. The official data currently in use belongs to the 2011–12 survey period. No survey has been conducted since then.
The third major missing dataset is the Socio-Economic and Caste Census (SECC). The last one was conducted in 2011–12. Though a survey was attempted in 2017–18, the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI) refused to use it due to concerns about data quality.
The absence of accurate and timely statistics unquestionably hampers the computation of essential indicators such as the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and poverty estimates.
We should also recall the controversy when two members of the National Statistical Commission resigned in protest against the central government’s attempts to use the autonomous body for political purposes. The unofficial members, P.C. Mohanan and J.V. Meenakshi, resigned in 2019. According to reports in LiveMint, Mohanan opposed the NITI Aayog’s interference in the release of the back-series GDP data.
In December 2018, although the National Sample Survey Organisation (NSSO) labour report had been approved by the National Statistical Commission, the Chief Statistician withheld it. The Periodic Labour Force Survey (PLFS) showed an increase in unemployment. When Business Standard published the key findings on January 30, 2019, then NITI Aayog CEO Amitabh Kant dismissed the leaked findings as a draft. But Acting Chairman P.C. Mohanan refuted him, confirming the report had indeed been approved.
Since inflation and poverty estimates rely on consumer expenditure statistics, withholding survey results makes it impossible to prepare accurate measurements.
MoSPI failed to clearly explain what exactly went wrong with the survey. But it is obvious that the findings were inconvenient for the government’s image, and that—not data quality—is what led to the suppression of the report.
In November 2019, another controversy erupted in the media: the Household Consumer Expenditure Survey (CES) of 2017–18 showed a decline in rural consumer spending compared to 2011-12.
For years, economists have also debated the methodology used in calculating the Index of Industrial Production (IIP) and the Gross Domestic Product (GDP). (See earlier discussion on issues raised by Arvind Subramanian, former Chief Economic Advisor to the Government of India.)
So what motivates a government to steer the country into a statistical blackout by refusing to conduct essential surveys?
One conclusion is painfully clear:
To prevent the harsh socio-economic realities from becoming visible through official data.
If the government cannot eliminate hunger and unemployment, it can at least eliminate the statistics that reveal them.
