As Bihar’s 121 assembly constituencies spread across 18 districts get ready to vote tomorrow- on November 6,2025 – senior journalist and political observer Sheetal P Singh analyses the various opinion polls that have been published through the campaign phase to present a “poll of polls“.
These are combined findings of seven major pre-election surveys – Livemint, JVC Poll, C Voter, NewsX, Lok Poll, Vote Vibe (Amitabh Tiwari), and others – and they present a fascinating neck-and-neck contest. These surveys are widely discussed on social media and have become the recent indicators of voter sentiment.
Average Vote Share
- NDA (BJP + JD(U) + allies): 38–40%
- INDIA alliance (RJD + Congress + Left): 37–39%
- Jan Suraaj (Prashant Kishor): 8–10%
- Others (smaller parties + independents): 10–12%
The gap between the two main alliances is barely 1–2%. Lok Poll shows INDIA at 38.5% and NDA at 37.2%, giving a slight edge to the INDIA bloc. VoteVibe too shows a narrow 1% difference (INDIA 36%, NDA 35%). JVC Poll, on the other hand, gives the highest projection to NDA with 41%.
Seat Projections
- NDA: 110–130 seats
- INDIA: 105–120 seats
- Jan Suraaj + Others: 8–15 seats
In the 243-member Assembly, a majority requires 122 seats. C Voter and NewsX place the NDA between 125–135 seats, while Lok Poll gives INDIA an edge with 118–126. VoteVibe estimates 115–120 for NDA and 110–118 for INDIA. Overall, a hung Assembly cannot be ruled out.
Social and Caste-wise Breakdown
- Women: 45–48% support for NDA, largely due to Nitish’s welfare schemes (bicycle, prohibition).
- Youth (18–35 years): 42–45% lean towards INDIA, attracted by Tejashwi’s job promises.
- Muslim + Yadav voters: INDIA’s core base, 75–80%.
- Upper Castes + EBCs: NDA’s stronghold, 60–65%.
- Dalits (Mahadalit vs Paswan groups): Mahadalits more with NDA, Paswan voters split towards INDIA.
Popularity of Chief Ministerial Faces
- Tejashwi Yadav: 35–38% (leads most surveys)
- Nitish Kumar: 22–28% (strong despite anti-incumbency)
- Prashant Kishor: 8–12% (emerging as a new alternative)
Anti-Incumbency and Key Issues
- Anti-incumbency: 45–50% against Nitish, but BJP’s brand image cushions NDA.
- Top voter concerns:
– Unemployment – 62%
– Inflation – 28%
– Crime – 22%
– Floods & migration – 18%
The Big Picture
The Poll of Polls suggests that there is no clear wave in Bihar. The NDA benefits from experience and the Modi–Nitish partnership, while the INDIA alliance draws strength from Tejashwi’s youth appeal and its social base.
If Jan Suraaj manages to corner around 10% of the vote, it could disrupt the balance — but whose prospects it will hurt more is for the voters to decide. Will Bihar vote for change, or for stability? That has been the big question in Bihar throughout the campaign phase and the poll of polls also does not give a clear picture.
