What the first phase of Gaza peace deal changes, and What it does not
Hostage exchanges are now plausible, but credibility hinges on a verifiable inquiry path, enforceable civilian protections, and an aid mechanism that can outlast shifting politics
As anticipated, the 20-point Trump plan, drafted in close consultation with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and presented to Hamas as an ultimatum, has been accepted by Israel and Hamas for the first phase: the release of Israeli hostages, living or dead, to be followed by Israel freeing a set number of Palestinian prisoners, and partial withdrawal of Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) to an agreed line.
Trump has announced the breakthrough and plans to travel to the region. He may address the Knesset and even visit Gaza, timed to coincide with the release of the hostages.
It is worth posing a few questions to see the larger picture.
Why was Israel caught napping on 7 October 2023?
Is it possible Netanyahu, taking a page from Machiavelli, allowed the attack to proceed so he could advance his Greater Israel project, a core Likud plank, in retaliation?
Egypt reportedly warned Israel in advance, and the chair of the US House Foreign Affairs Committee, Michael McCaul, has said the warning came three days before the attack. The New York Times has reported Israel had intelligence at least a year earlier, including a 40-page plan, “Jericho Wall,” outlining Hamas’s plan of operations.
Junior officers who wanted action were overruled by seniors who considered the plan “aspirational” and beyond Hamas’s capabilities.
Netanyahu also shifted part of the security presence from the Gaza border to the West Bank, where far-right activists were provoking worshippers at Al-Aqsa; as the Washington Post noted, he massed troops in the West Bank and Hamas attacked from Gaza.
The head of the IDF operations directorate, Maj. Gen. Shlomi Binder, reportedly learned of suspicious activity in Gaza only at 2.30am on 7 October).
Was he kept in the dark?
Accountability for those in high office is essential in a democracy. Netanyahu has so far resisted an inquiry and has used the 7 October crisis to slow down his own court proceedings. Police investigations began in 2016 and he was indicted for corruption in 2019. Can there be a credible inquiry on 7 October while he remains in office?
Why have UN member-states that ratified the 1948 Genocide Convention failed to act as Netanyahu embarked on a genocide two days after 7 October?
Western governments, led by the US, repeated that Israel had a right to defend itself. For months former US president Joe Biden looked the other way as the IDF bombed densely populated areas and restricted food, water and medicine. He edged toward a tougher stance only after the toll exceeded 18,000, with women and children more than 70% of the dead.
Netanyahu reluctantly agreed to a ceasefire, but broke it after 34 days, and resumed the campaign despite US pressure.
The Israeli PM openly favored Trump, and the two share an ideological affinity. Netanyahu has also mastered the art of praising Trump, something Trump expects from foreign leaders.
So, what is the situation in Gaza now?
Reliable figures are scarce. The Gaza health ministry reports 67,173 killed, with about 30% children. That does not include about 450 deaths from famine nor those still under rubble after IDF bombed high-rise buildings.
The UN says the true toll may be higher. A holistic account should add Israelis and foreign nationals killed on 7 October and Israeli military fatalities since then, but precise numbers are contested. The BBC puts the 7 October death toll at more than 1,000. Israeli military fatalities are harder to verify.
Israel’s own data indicate that 83% of Gazans killed are civilians, an unusually high share that many argue points to a war fought with methods that produce genocidal outcomes. Israel has destroyed or damaged hospitals, schools and residential blocks on a vast scale.
Navi Pillay from South Africa led a UN inquiry into Israeli actions in the West Bank, Gaza and East Jerusalem and reported extensive violations to the Human Rights Council.
The Lancet has highlighted that, in the first year, estimated life expectancy in Gaza fell from 75.5 to 40.6 years, with severe consequences for inter-generational care and social stability.
The Guardian has compiled the impact since the war began: more than 67,000 Palestinians killed, 168,716 injured, 436,000 homes destroyed or damaged (about 92% of housing), 2.1 million displaced (95% of the population), 518 schools damaged or destroyed, 745,000 students out of education, 654 hospitals and health centers damaged or destroyed, 1,700 health workers killed, 460 deaths from starvation, and 98.5% of agricultural land destroyed or inaccessible.
Civil society’s response
Protests against the genocide and in support of Palestine have been reported worldwide, including in Australia, Bulgaria, Switzerland, Japan, the UK, Indonesia and Sweden.
In Melbourne, some demonstrators shouted “Do it again,” urging a repeat of 7 October. At King’s College London, protesters called Israel a terrorist state.
In Kolkata, a march featured a joint effigy of Trump and Netanyahu being burned. I learnt about it from Times of Israel as most Indian media chose not to report it.
What next?
Hostages are expected to be freed by the weekend, with Trump poised to welcome them.
He may address the Knesset and travel to Gaza, security permitting.
After the release of the hostages, and after Trump and Netanyahu have maximized the photo opportunities, Israel may free Palestinian prisoners.
Netanyahu could still renege. It is likely only phase one of the Trump plan proceeds for now.
Some humanitarian aid will flow into Gaza. In short, the mass killing is paused, at least temporarily.
Meanwhile, Netanyahu continues to consolidate control over the West Bank, formally or otherwise, closing the window for a Palestinian state unless he is stopped.
This article is originally published in Press Insider – India’s Global Voice. and can be read here
