The Bihar assembly elections will be held in two phases on 6 and 11 November, with results on 14 November. With 243 assembly seats and 40 Lok Sabha constituencies, Bihar remains politically significant despite its per capita income being less than a third of India’s average.
Unlike other Hindi heartland states, Bihar has never produced a single-party majority in recent decades. The BJP, despite national dominance in 2014 and 2019, has yet to emerge as the state’s largest party. In 2015, contesting without JD(U), it won only 53 seats. In 2020, as a junior partner to JD(U), it contested fewer seats than its ally. In 2025, the BJP again fights alongside JD(U).
Meanwhile, the RJD under Tejashwi Yadav has been the single largest party in the last two elections but fell short of a majority, winning 80 and 75 seats respectively. Other players—Congress, CPI (ML), Chirag Paswan’s LJP faction, and Prashant Kishor’s Jan Suraj—cannot form a government alone but remain influential in coalition arithmetic.
The Absent Nitish Kumar
Nitish Kumar has dominated Bihar politics since 2005, taking oath as chief minister eight times and switching between BJP and RJD alliances while retaining power. The 2025 election is different: his health and reduced public presence have raised questions. Opposition leaders like Tejashwi Yadav and Prashant Kishor have openly raised concerns, while NDA allies insist he is fine. His long tenure has given Nitish Kumar an unmatched insight into block-level politics, and with Sushil Modi’s passing, the NDA lacks another leader of comparable stature.
The Spoiler of Muslim Votes
Muslims make up 17% of Bihar’s population. In 2020, AIMIM dented the RJD’s base in Seemanchal, winning five seats. But, in 2025, many voters consider AIMIM as a spoiler that indirectly helps the BJP. The Samajwadi Party’s 2024 success in Uttar Pradesh has reinforced the idea that consolidating behind the RJD offers Muslims a stronger chance at shaping a secular coalition.
The Upper-Caste Confusion
Upper-caste voters, about 10.5% of the population, have long supported the BJP. But the party’s OBC push has unsettled some. Ashish Upadhaya, a 42-year-old former BJP office-bearer in Kaimur, says, “BJP has followed others in caste-based politics, wooing OBC votes. Its state leaders don’t talk of taking everyone along. Prashant Kishor is the only leader who talks of issues concerning every section of society.” His sentiment is echoed by an elderly relative based in the USA who once supported the BJP but now recommends Kishor. The rapid rise of Samrat Chaudhary, the outgoing Deputy CM and the most visible face of the BJP in Bihar, has further alienated some upper-caste supporters, who feel the party has lost touch with its grassroots.
Can Prashant Kishor translate buzz into seats?
Prashant Kishor’s Jan Suraj party is contesting all seats in its debut. His past successes came with parties that had strong organisations; here, he faces the challenge of building one from scratch. His speeches have drawn young voters. Neeraj Yadav, a first-time voter in Mohania, says, “I’m hearing good things from Jan Suraj’s founder.” Salamu, in his 30s, adds, “He is good, but has no local leaders, hence unlikely to win. At best, he will cut other parties’ votes.” Without block-level organizational presence, converting social media traction into votes will be difficult.
The Frayed Opposition Alliance
Congress and RJD remain uneasy partners. Congress aspires for revival but lacks grassroots strength; in the 2022 Bochahan bypoll, its candidate polled fewer votes than NOTA. Its main contribution is the national face of Rahul Gandhi, whose Bharat Jodo and Voter Adhikar yatras drew significant crowds. Yet, as activist Raj Abhishek notes, “The party needs to sustain momentum by connecting with voters at the village level, which hasn’t happened.”
RJD benefits by keeping Congress marginal, projecting itself as the elder brother in Bihar while vying for the same 17% Muslim vote. Tejashwi Yadav is popular, but has struggled to broaden beyond the Yadav-Muslim base in popular perception, unlike Akhilesh Yadav in Uttar Pradesh. The alliance with the Congress, however, helps soften his image and attract wider anti-incumbency votes.
The National Implications of the Results
The results of this election may well mark the twilight of Nitish Kumar’s political career. In Patna’s political circles, there is talk of a tacit understanding between the state leadership of the BJP and the RJD: rather than triggering an early election after the 2024 Lok Sabha polls, both sides allowed the term to run its course, leaving Nitish increasingly sidelined. Whether this proves to be his final act remains to be seen, but the implications of Bihar’s verdict will extend far beyond the state.
The BJP holds only a slender lead at the Centre, and JD(U)’s uncertain future makes it a shaky partner. A loss in Bihar could weaken the NDA’s bargaining power in Parliament and dent Prime Minister Modi’s electoral brand, already under strain after 2024. An RJD-led win would embolden the opposition and complicate the BJP’s legislative agenda.
With a month to go, the outcome is uncertain—but the stakes extend far beyond Bihar.
