The ruling BJP-RSS establishment is on the horns of a dilemma. The man responsible for this is Home Minister Amit Shah, believed to be the most powerful man in the country after Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who was ironically the BJP Government’s biggest source of strength until the other day.
The fact that the well-entrenched Modi Government has now lost the arrogant self-confidence with which it ruled the country for the past 10 years and has entered an era of self-doubt can best be ascertained from the way both Prime Minister Modi and Amit Shah avoided Parliament during the better part of the monsoon session.
Moreover, for the first time in a decade and a half, the BJP-RSS ecosystem is on the defensive against an Opposition which it treated with scant regard and whose Leader of Opposition, Rahul Gandhi, and the best-known political family to which he belongs, it mercilessly attacked.
Whether this change in the attitude of Modi’s Government has been brought about by the Jantar Mantar agitation of the youth under the leadership of the Cockroach Janata Party (CJP), or whether the agitation was an expression of the dissent simmering in various segments of our population, can be a matter of opinion.
However, what can be said with certainty is that the ruling BJP-RSS establishment is not only under pressure but is facing a deep crisis.
The abrupt end of the monsoon session of the Lok Sabha, where the Home Minister was being asked to put up his defence of the police atrocities on students, is a clear indication of this deepening crisis.
Amit Shah Resignation Debate
The political quarters are abuzz with the rumour that the BJP leadership is weighing the pros and cons of the resignation of Home Minister Amit Shah. Perhaps it is not sure whether Amit Shah’s resignation will quell the anger generated by the inhuman treatment meted out to young boys and girls and stem the crisis facing the Modi Government.
The BJP-RSS leadership is also unable to figure out the impact of Amit Shah’s continuance in office on assembly elections in five states, including U.P., early next year. U.P., the biggest state of the Union, which sends 80 MPs to the Lok Sabha, is crucial to the BJP’s return to power at the Centre in the 2029 Lok Sabha elections.
Coupled with the Ram Mandir Chanda Chori scandal and upper-caste dissent over the UCC fiasco, the stories of police repression against protesting children at Jantar Mantar will surely provide a good handle to the resurging Opposition and severely compromise BJP prospects in U.P.
There is a demand in many quarters that Amit Shah should resign over allegations that he ordered the police to use excessive force to quell the CJP-led agitation of young boys and girls. Reports are circulating that Amit Shah ignored the advice of the Home Secretary against the use of excessive force by security forces.
Many people in the BJP-RSS ecosystem believe that Amit Shah’s resignation will pacify students and their parents, deprive the Opposition of a handle to strike against the Government and improve the BJP Government’s sagging image.
Shah-Yogi Feud Adds to Leadership Concerns
However, Amit Shah’s departure will create other problems for the BJP-RSS leadership. The feud between Amit Shah and U.P. Chief Minister Yogi is a known fact.
Amit Shah’s departure will give new strength to Yogi, which would not be to the liking of either Prime Minister Modi or his businessman friends in Gujarat who have made major investments in infrastructure and other projects in U.P.
A powerful Yogi will be tough with these investors, as in the end his image suffers when the shortcomings in these projects come to light and invite media scrutiny.
Theoretically, the eclipse of Amit Shah would make Yogi the top contender for the Prime Minister’s chair when Modi relinquishes office. This is a proposition that would not be liked even by the RSS, which was widely believed to have supported Yogi’s elevation as U.P.’s Chief Minister.
Though a Hindutva icon, Yogi is not from the RSS ranks and may not pick up all the grains from the RSS basket.
Moreover, a disgruntled Yogi can even upset the BJP’s apple-cart. A big segment in the BJP Legislature Party in U.P. owes its allegiance to Yogi and his Hindu Yuva Vahini and is quite cut up with the attempts of Modi-Shah loyalists to undercut Yogi.
The attempts to involve Yogi and his Government in the Chanda Chori scandal have further alienated them. If Yogi and his people decide to walk out of the BJP, it will have absolutely no chance of returning to power in next year’s elections.
Another factor that worries the BJP-RSS leadership is the severe dent that Modi’s image suffered in the Jantar Mantar agitation. It has practically finished Modi’s aura and has severely compromised his vote-catching ability.
Now it would be difficult for the party to win an election only on Modi’s image. In certain cases, it would even be a liability for the party.
The sustained Opposition campaign against the Modi Government, made sharper by Rahul Gandhi’s consistent diatribe against the RSS and Modi’s business friends in the Gujarat lobby, has considerably eroded Modi’s image.
Not long ago, social media was an instrument in the hands of the BJP establishment to run down the Opposition and lampoon Rahul Gandhi. Now it is putting the ruling establishment on the defensive.
While conventional media is still reticent in its criticism of Modi and his Government, social media is going all out in running down Modi, and its videos, reels and memes are attracting lakhs of viewers. The Superman image of Modi now lies shattered.
Therefore, the big question before Prime Minister Modi and his close advisers is whether to ask Amit Shah to quit or let him continue as before. The question is not an easy one.
No one can say for sure that Amit Shah’s resignation will satisfy the agitating youth and restore the image of Prime Minister Modi, his Government and the BJP as a whole, which has been seriously dented.
No one knows which way the Prime Minister will move. However, developments in the coming days are going to be interesting to watch.
This article was of originally published in Punjab Today News and can be read here.
A sharp and timely analysis of the political dilemma surrounding Amit Shah, the BJP and the RSS. The real question is not just who holds power, but how that power is shaping the future direction of the BJP and its relationship with the RSS. A thought-provoking piece that deserves serious debate.