Will an Overreach Strategy Help Congress Revival in Uttar Pradesh? 

The track record of the Indian National Congress (INC), the principal opposition party in the country, in relation to coalition politics and coalition dharma has time and again become points of intense discussion in political circles across the country.

It has been pointed out at several junctures over the last three and half decades, the period in which the grand old party has been forced to accept and practice coalition politics, that the INC leadership has often failed to properly gauge the party’s strengths and weaknesses in a coalition type situation, leading to repeated adoption of an “overreach strategy”. This strategy is apparently marked by unjustified demands and assertions within the coalitions it has had either at the Centre or in the States. 

The INC in Uttar Pradesh, the country’s most populous State, seems to be falling into this familiar pattern. This is to be seen in the preparations for the by-elections in ten assembly seats of the State, which are expected to be announced in the near future by the Election Commission of India (ECI). The ECI had announced the dates for assembly elections to the States of Haryana and Jammu and Kashmir on August 16. It is expected to announce the dates for polling in the crucial assembly polls in the States of Maharashtra and Jharkhand as well as to by-polls in various States where assembly seats have got vacant due to various factors including the election of MLAs to the Lok Sabha. 

The preparations for the by-elections in Uttar Pradesh have started and there are discussions and claims from various political parties highlighting their demands and expectations. These discussions are happening in both the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) led National Democratic Alliance (NDA), the ruling political force in the State, as well as the Samajwadi Party (SP) led the INDIA alliance, of which the INC is a part. In the Lok Sabha polls, the results of which came out in June 2024, the SP-led INDIA alliance had recorded an emphatic win, garnering 43 seats out of 80. Out of this, the Congress, SP’s junior partner in Uttar Pradesh INDIA, had won 6 seats. Now, the INC’s State leadership has demanded five seats out of the ten going for by-polls. 

The demand has given rise to a question as to how far this demand is justified. It is a question that is being widely debated in the political circles of the State. The debate has naturally delved into the past performances of the INC, as well as the multifarious caste and communal equations that dictate politics in Uttar Pradesh.

A History of Dominance before the Mandal-Kamandal era

Narayan Dutt Tiwari was the last Congress leader to become the Chief Minister of Uttar Pradesh. That was in the 1988-89 period. Congress had ruled Uttar Pradesh in the 1980s till December 1989, when Mulayam Singh Yadav took the reign of Samajwadi politics in the state. Earlier, opposition leaders such as Chaudhary Charan Singh, Ram Naresh Yadav, and Babu Banarasi Das had brief stints as Chief Ministers, with none completing more than two years in office. After 1989, except in the 2009 Lok Sabha elections, where Congress won 21 seats out of 80, the INC had performed poorly in the State. 

In recent decades, the following has been its performance:

2024 Lok Sabha Results

In the 2024 Loksabha elections, the Congress won Amethi, Raebareli, Allahabad, Saharanpur, Barabanki, and Sitapur. It contested 17 seats. Of the 11 seats it lost, 6 had less than a 5% loss margin (less than 50,000 votes). Its candidate from Bansgaon constituency lost the election by only 3,000 votes. It is a notable improvement over its abysmal performance, two seats out of 403, in the 2022 assembly election. However, the results are more a reflection of the success of the INDIA grouping, led by the SP.

The background of the INC candidates who contested the 2024 Lok Sabha polls is also an interesting point of analysis. The Sitapur candidate Rakesh Rathore joined Congress in 2022 from the BJP. He had won the 2017 assembly election from Sitapur on the BJP symbol. Saharanpur candidate Imran Masood joined the party in 2023 after the Mayawati-led Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) expelled him. He was earlier in Congress, then left it in 2022 to join the Samajwadi party, only to leave that too after the 2022 elections to join BSP. He had lost the 2012 and 2017 assembly elections and the 2014 and 2019 Lok Sabha elections. Samajwadi party did not nominate him to contest the 2022 assembly elections.

Allahabad candidate Ujjwal Rewati Raman Singh joined the party in April 2024, weeks before the election. He is the son of senior Samajwadi party leader Rewati Raman Singh. A former minister in the Samajwadi party government in the State, he was an MLA from 2017-22 on the Samajwadi party ticket. Barabanki candidate Tanuj Punia, son of senior Congress leader P.L Punia, had forfeited his deposit in the 2022 assembly elections, contesting from the Zaidpur assembly constituency, one out of 5 constituencies that are part of the Barabanki Lok Sabha seat. He had lost the seat to Samajwadi Party MLA Gaurav Kumar. He came 3rd in the 2019 LokSabha elections from the Barabanki seat, getting around 14% votes, behind the runner-up Samajwadi party candidate.

The dismal performance in the 2023 Municipal Elections

After the 2022 assembly elections, under the leadership of Priyanka Gandhi Vadhra, the General Secretary in charge of Uttar Pradesh, the party announced a new organisation structure in October 2023 consisting of 1 State President and 6 Regional Presidents. This was in October 2022, and the purported aim was to revive the party. However, in the civic elections held in May 2023, the party lost badly. Congress forfeited deposits in 14 out of 17 seats in the mayoral contest. Out of 1,420 councilor seats, it contested only 862 and won 77, with candidates losing deposits in 678 seats. That is a whopping 79% of contested seats.

The performance in the home districts of the multiple Congress State Presidents was particularly disappointing:

• Brijlal Khabri (Jalaun): Contested 4 Nagar Palika Parishad President seats, won 0, lost deposits in all. Contested 48 Nagar Palika Parishad Member seats, won 9, lost deposits in 35.

• Nasimuddin Siddiqui (Banda): Contested 2 Nagar Palika Parishad President seats, won 0, lost deposits on all. Contested 42 Nagar Palika Parishad Member seats, won 3, lost deposits in 31.

• Anil Yadav (Etawah): Contested 3 Nagar Palika Parishad President seats, won 0, lost deposits on all. Contested 12 Nagar Palika Parishad Member seats, won 1, lost deposits in 10.

• Virendra Chaudhary (Maharajganj): Contested 2 Nagar Palika Parishad President seats, won 0, lost deposits on all. On 4 Nagar Palika Parishad Member seats, it won 0 and lost deposits in all.

• Ajay Rai (Varanasi): Contested 86 Municipal Councilor seats, won 8, lost deposits in 68. Contested 1 Nagar Panchayat President seat, won 0, lost deposit. On 7 Nagar Panchayat Member seats, it won 0 and lost deposits in 4.

• Nakul Dubey (Lucknow): Contested 92 Municipal Councilor seats, won 4, lost deposits in 79. On 5 Nagar Panchayat Member seats, it won 0 and lost deposits in 4.

• Yogesh Dixit (Aligarh): Contested 51 Municipal Councilor seats, won 1, lost deposits in 45.

Loss in 2022 Assembly Elections

In November 2021, Priyanka Gandhi Vadra announced that the party would fight the 2022 elections alone, without any alliance. Congress fought the election on the plank of women empowerment, raising the slogan “Ladki Hoon, Lad Sakti Hoon” (I am female, I can fight). It failed to find candidates for all the seats. It contested 399 out of 403 seats, winning just 2. 97% of Congress candidates (387 out of 399) lost their deposits. It received only 2.3 % votes, its worst-ever performance, 4% less than the 2017 percentage.

In October 2021, Priyanka Gandhi Vadra declared that the party will nominate 40% female candidates in the 2022 assembly elections. However, after its disastrous performance in these polls, the party seemed to have given up on this women’s empowerment promise while announcing a new organization in October 2023. Less than  3% of women found representation in the party organization. It could not find a single female for the 16 positions of Vice-Presidents in the State party structure. Only 1 out of 38 General Secretaries was female. In December 2023, Avinash Pande replaced Priyanka Gandhi Vadhra as the General Secretary in charge of Uttar Pradesh.

Clearly, there has been a steady decline for the Congress in Uttar Pradesh, both electorally and organisationally, till the 2024 elections gave it a revival of sorts through the alliance with the SP. Indeed, the groundswell of opinion against the BJP governments at the Centre and in the State did contribute to this revival. The popular appeal generated by the Rahul Gandhi-led Bharat Jodo Yatra in various segments of the marginalized, including the Muslim minorities was also a contributing factor. 

But the big question is whether this has pitchforked the party to a situation where it is on par with the SP. The demand for half the seats going to the by-polls in the State seems to give the impression that the INC State leadership or at least sections of it have started having this thinking. Currently, Congress needs more strength to win alone in Uttar Pradesh. In the caste-driven politics of the state, it does not represent any significant caste bloc. 

The best strategy for it is to remain in an alliance led by the Samajwadi Party, which may include Congress to ensure the consolidation of Muslim votes. To regain its glory days in Uttar Pradesh it needs to find answers to the following. First, how will it strengthen its grassroots organization? Second, what would be a clear ideological stance that resonates with voters of Uttar Pradesh? And third, how can it nurture long-term party loyalists and homegrown talent? Over and above all this is the question as to how it would manage and sustain the alliance with the Samajwadi Party while working to carve out its own space. Certainly, inopportune overreach and political posturing are not the right way to go about while confronting these important issues and questions.